Forecasting Examples

Weekly Cotton Forecast

On March 9th of 2003 I made a public forecast about the Cotton market. This forecast was made within this Membership as well as on a number of public trading forums and newsgroup. This forecast was made based on one of my powerful proprietary forecasting programs...Ceppro. Here is the original text of that forecast on 3/9/03.

The following is a sectional cutout of the CEPPro program's Cycle Grid display. Today is March 9th, 2003. The CEPPro program is indicating that week of April 25th, 2003 has a very HIGH probability of producing a weekly swing turn. Allow a margin of error of one weekly price bar. Although this is a forecast made way in advance, there are other steps that a trader should take to get early indication that the weekly turn has indeed started to form, when the time comes. Within our membership, we have such procedures that incorporate using daily cycle turns as forecasted by our Fdates program (along with CEPPro). However, we place this weekly forecast here as possibly another example of the power of real Cycle Analysis.

Weekly Cotton Ceppro

On May 5th, 2003 we looked back at this original forecast so as to report on it.  This is what we had to report then.


Today is May 5th, 2003. Enough time has now elapsed so that you can see the result of the forecast that has been sitting here on this website for all to see since March 9th, 2003.

For the greatest affect, of course, you would have had to have visited this website from March 9th to around April 25th and viewed the original March 9th forecast found on the previous page. Nothing is more impressive than seeing it first BEFORE the fact and the result now AFTER the fact. In any event, here is the result of that forecast.

Cotton Chart

From: (
Subject: Weekly Cotton Cycle Turn
View: Complete Thread
Date: 2003-03-09 21:12:16 PST Major/Minor.

The indication is very strong that a weekly swing turn (change of trend) is likely to form around week 4/25. This is to be viewed using a weekly price chart (each weekly price bar represents a trading week). This is because the calculation was performed on WEEKLY price data bars, not daily.

It would be advisable to print this out and place somewhere to remind you come the end of April. The last time I produced a forecast such as this one, but on Silver, most forgot about it when the time arrived except one person, Gunter K. That was the Silver forecast, where weeks in advance I warned this and other forums that the CEPPro program showed a high probability for a daily cycle turn to occur around 2/6. Take a look at your daily chart of Silver and you'll see that a major top occurred on 2/5. This could happen also with Cotton, as CEPPro does a remarkable job of forecasting turns. It could turn out to be a nice option trade if so desired.

Disclaimer: This is just my opinion and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. TRADING IS RISKY. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.


Rick J. Ratchford
ProfitMax Trading, Inc.