Forecasting Examples

Australian Dollar Forecast

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Posted By: Rick Ratchford (Analyst -
Date: Monday, 2 May 2005, at 5:57 p.m.

The partial Ceppro v7 display below provides us with a glimpse into the future for the daily AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR.

The top display uses ALL AVAILABLE (Historical) daily price data for the Australian Dollar (including nite session) fed into the program.

The center 'grid' display uses only the most recent price data, approximately two years worth of recent data, to formulate its results. Like the top Historical display, the calculations are strictly 'cyclical' (no mathematics involved) in that it uses pattern matching and detrending techniques, and then the final results are formulated into 'clusters' to isolate the 'peak' dates for trading purposes (the expected turns).

The bottom 'grid' uses no pattern matching or detrending at all. It is based strictly on mathematics (market geometry - X/Y 'time/price' relationships) to formulate its results (these are called 'Fdates').

Note that the bottom two grids are in complete agreement although the method of calculation is night and day. The upper date list (Historical) is in agreement with the exception that its turn dates are shifted one bar to the left.

So here is what this 'suggests' for future AD$:

Expect a daily swing turn for 5/11 (runner-up 5/10) and 5/18 (runner-up 5/17).


Ceppro v7


Below is a daily chart of Australian Dollar updated to May 27th, 2005. You should be able to see from this daily chart that our Ceppro forecast, made 9 days in advance, turned out as forecasted.

Australian Dollar chart